PMVIX methodology
How a reading is produced, in eight stages, from venue data to a published number.
Published history only chains versions whose headline meaning is compatible, which is why the chart stays continuous across a version change. Where a version boundary falls inside a chart window it is drawn on the series.
Collect
Prices and order books are pulled from each venue on a fixed schedule and validated before anything is stored.
Link
Markets describing the same real-world event are grouped across venues into a single canonical event.
Screen
Eligibility gates exclude anything stale, too thin, too wide, halted, or too near or far from resolution.
Price
For each eligible outcome a depth-weighted price is taken from the book rather than the last trade, then carried into log-odds.
Reconcile
Prices for the same canonical payoff become one consensus, and the disagreement between venues is measured rather than averaged away.
Relate
A bounded 30-day hourly panel estimates how each event moves and how events move together, so one theme cannot count twice.
Aggregate
Concentration caps are applied and the resulting portfolio variance is annualized onto the published scale.
Publish
The series is smoothed for readability and an uncertainty band is drawn by resampling the eligible events.
Each stage carries its own parameters and evidence on the PMVIX board, where the live numbers for the selected lane sit beside the step that produced them.
What each number means